Executive Summary
Figure 1 Real-World Assets and the Penetration of Tokenization
Source: Opimas analysis
The tokenization of real-world assets, such as bonds, equities, and commodities has been touted for some years as the natural and inevitable evolution of financial services. The promise of radically reduced expenses, lower risk, instant settlement, and greater transparency, all to be unlocked by migrating on to distributed ledger technology (DLT) or blockchains seemed to be irresistible. Prognostications calling for the migration of tens of trillions of dollars of traditional assets onto crypto-infrastructures in the coming years abounded and continue to be common.
However, the actual progress of tokenization has been sobering. Across a broad range of instrument classes, DLT-tokens have failed to gain momentum and are stuck at very low adoption rates. In the area of securities, including equities, bonds, and mutual funds, tokenization has managed to garner at most 0.01% of assets. In commodities, tokenized gold has fared the best, but here too, penetration remains trivially low.
The one area in tokenization that has been met with success are stablecoins, which are designed to track fiat currencies. Here, we see that a market capitalization of over US$150 billion has been achieved. However, the vast majority of stablecoin activity is tied to the trading of crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin or Ether. Stablecoins have not been able to establish themselves as a widespread form of payment.
Most of the participants in this market have struggled to achieve profitability. Many have not been able to generate any revenues at all, despite years of trying. We believe that 2025 will force a significant number of these firms to fundamentally change direction and leverage their technology and expertise in adjacent areas. However, for many, it is already too late, and they will have no choice but to close their doors.
The tokenization of real-world assets, such as bonds, equities, and commodities has been touted for some years as the natural and inevitable evolution of financial services. The promise of radically reduced expenses, lower risk, instant settlement, and greater transparency, all to be unlocked by migrating on to distributed ledger technology (DLT) or blockchains seemed to be irresistible. Prognostications calling for the migration of tens of trillions of dollars of traditional assets onto crypto-infrastructures in the coming years abounded and continue to be common.
However, the actual progress of tokenization has been sobering. Across a broad range of instrument classes, DLT-tokens have failed to gain momentum and are stuck at very low adoption rates. In the area of securities, including equities, bonds, and mutual funds, tokenization has managed to garner at most 0.01% of assets. In commodities, tokenized gold has fared the best, but here too, penetration remains trivially low.
The one area in tokenization that has been met with success are stablecoins, which are designed to track fiat currencies. Here, we see that a market capitalization of over US$150 billion has been achieved. However, the vast majority of stablecoin activity is tied to the trading of crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin or Ether. Stablecoins have not been able to establish themselves as a widespread form of payment.
Most of the participants in this market have struggled to achieve profitability. Many have not been able to generate any revenues at all, despite years of trying. We believe that 2025 will force a significant number of these firms to fundamentally change direction and leverage their technology and expertise in adjacent areas. However, for many, it is already too late, and they will have no choice but to close their doors.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 3
Introduction 4
Astounding Promises and Forecasts 4
The Bitter Reality 4
Progress by Asset Class 6
Equities 6
Fixed Income 6
Mutual Funds 10
Commodities 11
Stablecoins 12
Central Bank Digital Currencies 13
Market Participants 16
Technology Providers 16
Investment Banks 17
Exchanges 17
Looking Forward 20
Uptake to Remain Limited 20
The Year of Reckoning - 2025 20
Firms Mentioned in Report
BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, Ondo Finance, Tether, PAX Gold, USDT, Circle USDC, eCNY, SandDollar, eNaira, R3, Digital Asset, Société Générale – SG Forge, J.P. Morgan – Onyx, HSBC – Orion, DekaBank – SWIAT, Crédit Agricole and SEB – so|bond , SDX, DefiChain,